Cytokine signature for predicting new-onset prediabetes after acute pancreatitis: A prospective longitudinal cohort study

•Interleukin-1β at baseline predicts new-onset prediabetes after acute pancreatitis.

•Interferon γ at baseline predicts new-onset prediabetes after pancreatitis.

•Changes in adaptive immunity may underlie glucose derangements after pancreatitis.

Acute inflammation of the pancreas often leads to metabolic sequelae, the most common of which is new-onset prediabetes (and, ultimately, diabetes). However, there is a lack of studies on predictors of this sequela. The aim was to investigate whether cytokines/chemokines measured at baseline are predictive of new-onset prediabetes after acute pancreatitis (NOPAP).

This was a prospective longitudinal cohort study (as part of the LACERTA project) that included 68 individuals with non-necrotising acute pancreatitis who had no diabetes mellitus. Of them, 17 individuals had prediabetes at baseline and during follow-up, 37 individuals had normoglycaemia at baseline and during follow-up, and 14 individuals had normoglycaemia at baseline and developed NOPAP during follow-up. A commercially available human cytokine/chemokine multiplex kit was used to measure a total of 28 analytes at baseline. Multinomial regression analyses were conducted to investigate the associations between the cytokines/chemokines and the three study groups.

Interleukin-1β and interferon γ significantly predicted progression to NOPAP with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.097 (1.002, 1.201) and 1.094 (1.003, 1.192), respectively (after accounting for age, sex, body mass index, and aetiology of acute pancreatitis). None of the studied cytokines/chemokines showed statistically significant associations with the antecedent prediabetes group (after accounting for the above covariates).

Elevated levels of interleukin-1β and interferon γ in acute pancreatitis individuals with normoglycaemia at baseline may predict progression to NOPAP during follow-up.